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All the analysis on the economy and markets, and the reasoning behind every decision

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A night-time oil refinery on the water, its pipes and towers linked by a single golden line that climbs across the complex like a rising price chart, up a tall flare stack topped with a real flame, its light burning in reflection on the dark sea below, as a metaphor for a manufactured shortage turning into a price nobody can talk back down.Featured

Why is an oil crisis coming at the end of 2026?

Bessent needs low rates, Trump needs to win the AI war with China, and Warsh needs to look independent. A manufactured oil crisis hands all three exactly what they want.

8 min

All the research

A night-time oil refinery on the water, its pipes and towers linked by a single golden line that climbs across the complex like a rising price chart, up a tall flare stack topped with a real flame, its light burning in reflection on the dark sea below, as a metaphor for a manufactured shortage turning into a price nobody can talk back down.Featured

Why is an oil crisis coming at the end of 2026?

Bessent needs low rates, Trump needs to win the AI war with China, and Warsh needs to look independent. A manufactured oil crisis hands all three exactly what they want.

8 min
A line of golden light descends over a dark blue landscape until it grazes the water and rises again, as a metaphor for waiting for the market floor.

I'm opening my portfolio with $40,000 and buying nothing

I'm opening a public portfolio with $40,000 of my own money, and the first decision written into its record is to buy nothing until the September–December window.

11 min
A cliff in half-light whose upper edge traces a line of golden light from left to right. At the highest point, right where the wall drops sheer, the tiny silhouette of a person leaning out over the void. Below, blue-tinged fog covers the bottom.

How they're fooling you with BTC

While everyone tells you BTC is heading back to highs, there is a move building underneath that can cost you a lot of money.

6 min