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The chart of the week

A double chart. On the left, the diagram of the classic speculative cycle: a white curve rising from take-off through the bear trap, first sell-off, awareness, enthusiasm and euphoria to a peak labelled “new paradigm”, falling, bouncing into a second, lower peak labelled “denial” — marked with a golden circle and the label “here?” — and from there dropping through fear and capitulation back to the mean. On the right, the weekly candles of the KOSPI between January 2025 and 27 August 2026, with the same phases labelled over the real path: take-off, awareness, enthusiasm, euphoria and a high of 9,385.59 on 19 June 2026, marked with a golden circle and the question “new paradigm?”. Then the fall to a low of 5,262.77, 43.9% below the high, and the bounce that follows. At the foot, a label: “back to normal? Rebound +31.3%, still −26.4% below the high”.

The KOSPI, tracing the classic speculative cycle

The same pattern repeats through history and we never learn. The KOSPI followed the bubble pattern exactly, and has fallen 43% in six weeks.

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Weekly chart of Broadcom from March 2025 to 24 August 2026. A rising golden arrow joins two highs, both marked with a small circle: 8 December 2025, labelled $414.61, and 1 June 2026, labelled $495. Below, in a panel headed MACD and over those same two weeks, a second golden arrow runs the other way, starting higher and ending lower, from 30.40 to 24.98. After that June high the price falls back: the last close, in a white pill on the right-hand axis, is $371.54, and the histogram at the bottom of the panel is red across almost the whole final stretch.

Weekly bearish divergence in Broadcom

Daily chart of Bitcoin from July to 29 August 2026. Above, the candles climb from around $59,500 and then drift sideways between $62,000 and $66,000 for almost two months, before rising vertically to $79,027, marked with a small circle and labelled “price, +25% in 11 sessions”. Below, two lines run over the same period, each on its own scale. The golden one is sentiment: it sits between 25 and 33 for almost the whole chart and in the last sessions shoots up to 65, marked with a circle and the label “sentiment · greed”. The white one is open interest in bitcoin futures: it runs above the golden line across the whole chart, peaks in mid-August, also marked with a circle, and then drops to the label “−28% open interest”. The two lines cross right at the right-hand edge.

Bitcoin's euphoria has no money behind it

Daily chart of Bitcoin from February to 30 August 2026, with four parallel golden lines falling from left to right. At the bottom, two of them enclose the lows: the lower passes through the low of 6 February, at $60,074, marked with a small circle and labelled “the lows, on the same line”, and through the low of 1 July, below $58,000. Above, that same pair raised to the high of 10 May, at $82,430, also circled and labelled “projection · the slope of the lows”; the lower line of that upper pair is dashed. Between May and July the price falls from $82,000 to under $58,000, then moves sideways around $63,000 through August. At the end it rises vertically in a handful of sessions: one wick clears the upper line and comes straight back, and the last candle stops with its high at $80,678, circled right on that line and labelled “$941 into the band”.

Bitcoin is still inside its falling channel

Weekly chart of the US dollar index from January 2025 to 24 August 2026. A grey box marks 54 weeks of range between 96.30 and 100.43, with small circles where the price touched those levels: three on the ceiling, two on the floor. A solid golden line marks the ceiling at 100.43, labelled “the ceiling · 54 weeks of range”, and the floor carries the label “96.30, the range floor”. A golden circle sits on the week of 15 June 2026, labelled “first close above · 15 June 2026 · 100.85”. Higher up, a dashed golden line marks a projection at 104.56, labelled “projection · range height above the ceiling”. The price never reaches it, and the last candles close back below the ceiling, inside the range.

The dollar broke out and came back in

Weekly chart of Alphabet from March 2025 to 24 August 2026. A rising golden arrow joins two highs, each marked with a small circle: 2 February 2026, labelled $349, and 18 May 2026, labelled $408.61. Below, in a panel headed MACD and over those same two weeks, a second golden arrow runs the other way, starting higher and ending lower, from 30.15 to 28.09. After the May high the price falls back: the last close, in a white pill on the right-hand axis, is $340.65, and the histogram at the bottom of the panel is red across the final stretch.

The price rose 17%. The momentum did not.

A double chart. On the left, the diagram of the classic speculative cycle: a white curve rising from take-off through the bear trap, first sell-off, awareness, enthusiasm and euphoria to a peak labelled “new paradigm”, falling, bouncing into a second, lower peak labelled “denial” — marked with a golden circle and the label “here?” — and from there dropping through fear and capitulation back to the mean. On the right, the weekly candles of the KOSPI between January 2025 and 27 August 2026, with the same phases labelled over the real path: take-off, awareness, enthusiasm, euphoria and a high of 9,385.59 on 19 June 2026, marked with a golden circle and the question “new paradigm?”. Then the fall to a low of 5,262.77, 43.9% below the high, and the bounce that follows. At the foot, a label: “back to normal? Rebound +31.3%, still −26.4% below the high”.

The KOSPI, tracing the classic speculative cycle

A chart overlaying two paths of the Nasdaq Composite: one from the launch of Netscape Navigator in December 1994 and one from the opening of ChatGPT in November 2022, each as a percentage from its own day zero and aligned by trading sessions rather than by date. The horizontal axis runs from “the launch” to “5 years”. The grey Netscape curve climbs to +396% at five years, labelled “only +113% of it after three”, and carries a marker further back reading “+116%, Netscape at this point, 325 sessions still ahead of it”. The golden ChatGPT curve stops at that same session, labelled “today, +131% with ChatGPT, 937 sessions since 30 November 2022”.

At this point, the internet still had its best ahead

Weekly chart of the distance between the net position of small money and that of leveraged funds in Nasdaq 100 futures, from 2022 to August 2026, measured as a percentage of open interest. A shaded band marks what is normal over 238 weeks. The golden line moves inside that band for most of the series, then spikes to a record +39.4%, marked with a small circle and labelled “never this far apart, small money long, leveraged funds short”. From that peak the line drops steeply and ends back inside the band.

Some buy and others sell. Never this far apart.

Weekly chart of Nvidia from March 2025 to 24 August 2026. A rising golden arrow joins two highs, each marked with a small circle: 27 October 2025, labelled $212.19, and 11 May 2026, labelled $236.54. Below, in a panel headed MACD and over those same two weeks, a second golden arrow runs the other way, starting higher and ending lower, from 13.63 to 8.86. After the May high the price dips and comes back: the last close, in a white pill on the right-hand axis, is $227.98, near that high, and the last bars of the histogram at the bottom of the panel are green.

Nvidia rose less and lost more steam

A chart overlaying two cycles of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, each based at 100 at its own cycle low and aligned by years from that low rather than by date. The horizontal axis runs from “the low” to eight years. The grey curve, from May 1994, climbs 1,024% to a peak marked with a small circle and labelled “the dot-com bubble, peak in March 2000, after 5.8 years of gains”, and then falls to a second circle labelled “−83% afterwards, 2.6 years to the low”. The golden curve, from March 2020, climbs 815% over 6.4 years and stops there, marked with a circle and labelled “today, +815% in 6.4 years, −17% from the June peak”.

Two bubbles of the same index, one on top of the other

Weekly chart of the US 30-year bond yield from 2022 to 24 August 2026. A horizontal golden line marks a ceiling at 5.17%, labelled “3 touches in 2.8 years”, with a small circle at each of those touches. Below it, a second golden line rises through two higher lows, also circled and labelled “2 higher lows”, and the two converge into a triangle. The last candles close above the ceiling. Higher up, a dashed golden line marks a projection at 6.43%, labelled “projection · triangle height above the ceiling”.

Three years pushing the same ceiling, and it breaks