Weekly chart of the US 30-year bond yield from 2022 to 24 August 2026. A horizontal golden line marks a ceiling at 5.17%, labelled “3 touches in 2.8 years”, with a small circle at each of those touches. Below it, a second golden line rises through two higher lows, also circled and labelled “2 higher lows”, and the two converge into a triangle. The last candles close above the ceiling. Higher up, a dashed golden line marks a projection at 6.43%, labelled “projection · triangle height above the ceiling”.

31 August 2026

Three years pushing the same ceiling, and it breaks

The most dangerous chart I have analysed in recent weeks.

If this breakout is confirmed and yields head higher, they will cause big falls in the markets.

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