Daily chart of Bitcoin from February to 30 August 2026, with four parallel golden lines falling from left to right. At the bottom, two of them enclose the lows: the lower passes through the low of 6 February, at $60,074, marked with a small circle and labelled “the lows, on the same line”, and through the low of 1 July, below $58,000. Above, that same pair raised to the high of 10 May, at $82,430, also circled and labelled “projection · the slope of the lows”; the lower line of that upper pair is dashed. Between May and July the price falls from $82,000 to under $58,000, then moves sideways around $63,000 through August. At the end it rises vertically in a handful of sessions: one wick clears the upper line and comes straight back, and the last candle stops with its high at $80,678, circled right on that line and labelled “$941 into the band”.

31 August 2026

Bitcoin is still inside its falling channel

Everyone is talking about Bitcoin going back to all-time highs because it has bounced almost 40% off its July low.

And yet it is still inside its short-term falling channel, and to improve it would have to confirm the break.

The decision

We are not buying this bounce. A move this violent to the upside can produce one just as violent to the downside when it runs into the resistance of the falling channel.

And the macro is pointing the other way, so the worst for Bitcoin may still be ahead.

Read the full thesis

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SourceYahoo Finance (BTC-USD, daily sessions)Data to 30 August 2026

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