Weekly chart of the US 10-year Treasury yield from 1979 to 24 September 2026. Two parallel golden lines form a falling band that starts in 1985 and caps every rally for more than three decades, labelled “The 1987 downtrend” and “Highs of 1987 and 2018”, with small circles on the highs of 1987, 1990, 1994, 2007 and 2018. In 2022 the yield breaks out above the band, marked with a circle and the label “Clear break above, April 2022 · 2.71%”, and a golden arrow follows the climb that came next, up to 5% in 2023. The last candle ends at 5.16%, circled and labelled “5.16%, highest close since 2007”.

25 September 2026

From 4% to 5% faster than ever

The US 10-year Treasury yield has gone from below 4% to above 5.16% in just seven months. In more than 60 years of data, it has never made that move this fast.

That can weigh on your portfolio and hit you directly the next time you apply for a loan.

If this trend continues, with oil also climbing, hard times are coming for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

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