A chart overlaying two cycles of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, each based at 100 at its own cycle low and aligned by years from that low rather than by date. The horizontal axis runs from “the low” to eight years. The grey curve, from May 1994, climbs 1,024% to a peak marked with a small circle and labelled “the dot-com bubble, peak in March 2000, after 5.8 years of gains”, and then falls to a second circle labelled “−83% afterwards, 2.6 years to the low”. The golden curve, from March 2020, climbs 815% over 6.4 years and stops there, marked with a circle and labelled “today, +815% in 6.4 years, −17% from the June peak”.

31 August 2026

Two bubbles of the same index, one on top of the other

A chart that costs me a little sleep. This does not mean the semiconductor index is going to fall 83% again, but it does warn you that what goes up fast comes down fast.

Semiconductors have been the leaders since 2022 and they have risen enormously. After a rise that spectacular, a severe correction can follow.

The decision

This is one of the charts I watch constantly.

Across the market, assets are lining up for a correction, and if it comes, semiconductors — just as they led the way up — will lead the way down.

For now everything suggests that if that correction arrives it will not be as brutal as the one in 2000, and if so it will be a good entry for a 2027 in which they can make new highs again.

Read the full thesis

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SourceYahoo Finance (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, weekly closes)Data to 24 August 2026

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