Daily chart of Bitcoin from July to 29 August 2026. Above, the candles climb from around $59,500 and then drift sideways between $62,000 and $66,000 for almost two months, before rising vertically to $79,027, marked with a small circle and labelled “price, +25% in 11 sessions”. Below, two lines run over the same period, each on its own scale. The golden one is sentiment: it sits between 25 and 33 for almost the whole chart and in the last sessions shoots up to 65, marked with a circle and the label “sentiment · greed”. The white one is open interest in bitcoin futures: it runs above the golden line across the whole chart, peaks in mid-August, also marked with a circle, and then drops to the label “−28% open interest”. The two lines cross right at the right-hand edge.

31 August 2026

Bitcoin's euphoria has no money behind it

Bitcoin has bounced almost 40% off its July low, and everyone is saying it is going back to all-time highs. Underneath, though, there is something about this move that is not right.

There has been a short squeeze, and that is what made it go up so fast. While bitcoin rises, the strong hands are selling and retail is buying.

The decision

We are not buying this bounce. It is designed to trap people in long positions and then deliver one violent leg down that leaves them stuck there.

The worst for Bitcoin may still be ahead.

Read the full thesis

Also on

SourceBybit (open interest on the BTCUSDT perpetual, in bitcoins), with sentiment from alternative.me and the price from Yahoo FinanceData to 29 August 2026

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