Why is an oil crisis coming at the end of 2026?

Oil is back above $100, and you’re already feeling it every time you fill up. By now, everyone is talking about a global economic crisis triggered by oil.

I’d like to be honest with you from the start. While the market narrative says the surge in oil is the result of a string of mistakes and blunders by the US, the truth is that it has been a planned, coordinated move all the way up to today, designed to bring us to the very brink of a global oil crisis that will strengthen the US position and allow them to achieve the goals they’ve set for themselves.

To understand why they want to cause an oil crisis worse than the one we already have, let me introduce you to the main players and their goals.

1. Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary. His only goal is to keep printing money like there’s no tomorrow so the debt wall doesn’t come crashing down on him. In a world where debt is going exponential, and money printing right along with it, he needs low interest rates to buy a little more time for the house of cards today’s economy has become.
2. The Donald Trump administration. Its main goal is to win the war against China and remain the dominant power, whatever it takes. When it comes to beating them, I’ll quote what the president said a few days ago, “Whoever dominates AI will win the war”. Well, to dominate AI you need to build out all the infrastructure, and to build all that infrastructure you need ultra-bullish markets that draw all the world’s money into the companies putting up those data centres. That’s why this administration’s overriding goal is for stock markets to be ultra-bullish until 2028.
3. Kevin Warsh, Chair of the Fed. His main goal is very simple, and it’s etched into the charter the Fed was founded on more than a century ago. To be independent. Even if everyone says he was handpicked by Trump, the Fed has to remain independent, at least as far as the public is concerned.

What’s more, our three players have had close ties for years. So much so that Bessent and Warsh meet for breakfast every week.

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Now that we know who they are, let’s look at the playbook they’re going to follow to cause an oil crisis, how it could affect your portfolio and your life, and how you can not only protect yourself but actually turn it to your advantage.

1. The oil crisis of their dreams

The first thing to understand is that an oil crisis doesn’t hurt everyone equally. While you and I foot the bill every time we fill up and curse a world that keeps getting darker, there are other people who either couldn’t care less about rising prices because they have more money and power than 99% of the planet, or who are outright profiting from them.

Geopolitics works exactly the same way. The US is the world’s largest oil producer. A producing country doesn’t suffer the consequences of rising oil prices. If things get out of hand, it uses its own oil and sells what it doesn’t need at whatever price the market dictates. Countries in Latin America and Europe, on the other hand, are importers, and they bear the full brunt of it.

So an oil crisis will only benefit the US, because while it runs on its own oil, it’s everyone else who foots the bill. And even if it did get hurt too, it would be the one hurt least. If everyone loses 5 and I lose 1, I’m the one who wins, even though we’ve all lost.

And as we’ve seen, the Trump administration is openly at war with China, and if winning that war means squeezing money out of its allies, it obviously will. In fact, it already is.

2. How they’re going to fool everyone else

We’ve already seen that they mainly need two things, lower interest rates and an ultra-bullish market until 2028.

Do you know what would give them both at once?

That’s right, an oil crisis. And on top of that, a crisis the US wouldn’t suffer as much as everyone else, and would even benefit from.

I know what you’re thinking. How is an oil crisis supposed to make stocks go up?

To launch an ultra-bullish leg in stocks, the kind that ends up in the history books, 1999-2000 style, you need just one thing. A fast, deep drop that flushes out all the excess, brings multiples down and leaves everyone positioned against the market, so you can then unleash that almost exponential rally all the way to 2028.

You can’t create a market that bullish from current positioning. Multiples are extremely stretched and people are already extremely bullish, with record levels of leverage. To flush out all that excess you need a fast, clean drop, and an oil crisis is exactly what sets one off.

3. The masterstroke

We’ve already seen that Bessent wants low rates to finance the debt, and that Warsh wants to stay independent. Once again, an oil crisis is exactly what they need to achieve both goals.

The first thing Warsh will do is raise interest rates, to project that image of Fed independence, while Bessent and the Trump administration play along by saying publicly that rates need to come down.

At this first stage, one of them has already achieved his goal. The Fed looks independent. And I say “looks” because it really isn’t.

Now it’s time to engineer the oil crisis on a global scale. Over the last few weeks, and even the last few days, they’ve been taking important steps to create it.

1. They haven’t backed Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s biggest oil exporters, against the Houthis, who have destroyed major Saudi refineries and ships. That has tightened the market even further.
2. The war with Iran is worse than ever. And over the coming days, the administration will probably make things worse on purpose, threatening or outright launching bigger attacks, or even a ground invasion.
3. The US has clearly been intervening in the paper oil market since the war began. What would happen if all of the above suddenly came together and, on top of that, they stopped intervening?

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If I restrict supply with the Iran war and the Houthis, and then let the paper market explode, I’ve got the perfect oil crisis.

Once the global crisis is underway, the rest of the plan takes care of itself.

Stock markets fall hard and fast. That eases the pressure on bonds and their yields, which benefits Bessent and the public debt.

When the time comes, once inflation cools off or something big breaks in the economy, out will come the miraculous independent Fed, with the printer plugged in, cutting rates and pumping money into the markets.

That will set off an ultra-bullish 2027, with markets going from massive fear to extreme greed. And whatever happens in 2028, well, that’s another story.

The Decision

As you can see, all the pieces are set and everything is in place for these people to achieve their goals. An oil crisis will cause a fast, hard drop in the markets, which will then cause them to explode massively higher in 2027, drawing all the world’s capital into the US so they can fund their data centres, dominate AI for years to come and, in doing so, try to win the war with China.

At the same time, Bessent will finally get his low rates and Warsh will look independent, even though he never has been. In the market’s eyes, he’ll step in to cut rates because the economy needs saving, not because he isn’t independent. What many won’t see is that he’s saving it from a crisis they created themselves.

Since you and I don’t have billions or power in high places, I’ll tell you the decision I’m going to make with my own money, in my $40,000 public portfolio.

The decision is clear. Wait for the crisis to arrive, don’t buy into the narrative the markets and the media will be pushing as it unfolds, wait for the stock market to fall, and when everyone is panicking, when everyone is saying the global economy is finished, when everyone is saying we’re heading for stagflation and this is just like 1970, step in and buy the right assets at a good price, to make the most of the 2027 bull market.

Extreme patience and decisive action.

I hope this article has helped you better understand the world and the markets we’re immersed in. You can get research like this every week, along with the moves I’m making in my portfolio in research.jcrinvestment.com. See you there.

And if you want to leave a like, or a comment here telling me what you thought, how you see what’s going on, or what you expect from the markets, I’ll be reading.

Good luck, investor.